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Wednesday, December 31, 2008

Matt's Positions as of December 31

AAPL:
Long 1 JAN11 100 Call

AEMD:
Long 7000 shares

CTSH:
Short 1 JAN09 20 Call
Long 2 JAN11 15 Call

GME:
Long 2 JAN11 20 Call

RIMM:
Short 1 FEB09 40 Call
Long 1 JAN11 30 Call

SLV:
Long 100 Shares

SPY:
Short 2 JAN09 94/97 Vertical Call Spread
Short 2 JAN09 95/98 Vertical Call Spread
Short 2 FEB09 80/83 Vertical Put Spread
Short 2 FEB09 96/98 Vertical Call Spread

UA:
Short 1 JAN09 22.50 Call
Long 1 APR09 25 Call


This month profit (loss):  2.3%
Year-to-date profit (loss):  (37.5%)


December was, hopefully, a turnaround month and not a fluke.  Most of the December expirations ended up in the money for me and I was able to lock in some solid profits, both with the vertical spreads on SPY and with some diagonal positions traded against the long options on some preferred stocks.

Strategy going into 2009:  Stay the course and try to make this strategy work for me.  A 2.3% gain per month is not too bad annually, if December was not a fluke that is.

Monday, December 1, 2008

Matt's Positions as of December 1

AAPL:
Long 1 JAN11 100 Call

AEMD:
Long 8000 shares

CTSH:
Long 2 JAN11 15 Call

FSLR:
Short 2/1 DEC08 110/115 Backratio Spread

SLV:
Long 100 shares

SPY:
Long 2 DEC08 68/69/106/109 Iron Condor
Long 2 DEC08 68/69/106/108 Iron Condor
Long 2 DEC08 78/79/97/99 Iron Condor
Short 2 DEC08 85/87 Vertical Put Spread
Long 2 DEC08 84/86 Vertical Put Spread

UA:
Long 1 APR09 25 Call

This month profit (loss): (9.2%)
Year-to-date profit (loss): (38.9%)


Some adjustments I'm going to make:
  • Not going to do backratio spreads any more, at least not for a while. They consume too much cash.
  • Need to monitor the long positions a bit closer, to figure out how to sell premium against them.
  • Need to be thinking about when to get out of the UA call.
All in all, even though I'm still going down, I'm not unhappy about this yet. I mean, I'm not really that happy with it either, but the bulk of my position is in SPY, and so far it is looking pretty positive for December expiration.

Friday, October 31, 2008

Matt's Positions as of October 31

I've kinda given up on logging each transaction, it is a lot of work. Here's the current positions:

AAPL:
Short 2 NOV08 75/85 Vertical Call Spread
Short 2/1 NOV08 120/125 Backratio Spread
Long 1 NOV08/JAN11 125/100 Diagonal Spread

AEMD:
Long 7000 shares

SPY:
Long 2 NOV08 82/84/123/125 Iron Condor
Long 2 NOV08 86/88/114/115 Iron Condor
Short 2 NOV08 105/107 Vertical Call Spread
Short 2 NOV08 106/108 Vertical Call Spread
Short 2 NOV08 110/111 Vertical Call Spread
Short 2 DEC08 97/99 Vertical Call Spread
Short 2 DEC08 106/108 Vertical Call Spread

UA:
Long 1 NOV08/APR09 25 Calendar Spread

This month profit (loss): (5.1%)
Year-to-date profit (loss): (32.7%)


Those numbers don't look very good, but they really don't tell the whole picture. A couple of weeks ago, the this-month loss was at around 13%. This have been turning around the latter half of the month, and we are starting to come back.

To put it another way, I think last month's strategy was sound and paying off. Record highs in the VIX allowed me to leg in, a vertical spread at a time, into some very wide iron condors on SPY, and I have managed to turn my delta around to a better number.

Next month will be telling, so we'll have to watch carefully and see.

Friday, October 3, 2008

Matt's Positions as of October 3

DISASTER! Who can figure out what securities are going to do when the US government selectively bails out, or doesn't bail out, companies at their own discretion and whim? Arrgh.

I've fallen a bit behind on recent transactions, so I'll just do the monthly position update, and forward strategy.

AAPL:
Short 2 NOV08 75/85 Vertical Call Spread
Short 2/1 NOV08 120/125 Backratio Spread

AEMD:
Long 6000 shares

FSLR:
Long 4/4/2/2 OCT08 185/190/230/260 Iron Condor

GLD:
Long 1 JAN10 85 put

RIG:
Short 2 OCT08 100/110 Vertical Put Spread
Short 5 OCT08 115/120 Vertical Put Spread
Short 2 NOV08 95/100 Vertical Put Spread

SPY:
Long 2/2/4/4 OCT08 110/112/130/132 Iron Condor
Short 2 OCT08 116/123 Vertical Put Spread
Short 2 OCT08 119/125 Vertical Put Spread
Short 2 NOV08 123/125 Vertical Call Spread

UA:
Short 2 NOV08 35/40 Vertical Call Spread
Long 1 APR09 25 Call

This month profit (loss): (24.73%)
Year-to-date profit (loss): (29.08%)


This month's strategy:
  1. Keep last month's #1 - Greater focus in fewer positions. I forgot this a bit, still need to try to focus more.
  2. Buy in on strong upward indicators for Rule #1 stocks. Sell diagonals against the call options to fund the transaction over the long term.
  3. Adjust SPY strategy so delta is in better harmony with sentiment (bearish).
  4. Don't force any positions. Cash is king. Great opportunities are going to come soon, and I want to be prepared to take advantage.

Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Matt's Trade Log - 9/30/08

Forgot to enter yesterday's trades, so I will do those first:
  • Sell 1 RIG JAN10 100 call
  • Sell 1/2 AAPL NOV08 120/125 backratio put spread
  • Sell 2 AAPL NOV08 75/85 vertical put spread
Today's trades:
  • Sell 2 RIG NOV08 95/100 vertical put spread
Yesterday was a horrible day for most novice investors, I'd imagine, along with probably a lot of very experienced investors. News, or rather the lack thereof, of the government bailout plan sent stocks dropping. And it didn't help that AAPL was inexplicably downgraded yesterday morning.
That downgrade, in my opinion, can only be reasonably explained by market manipulation. AAPL is one of the strongest stocks around, and they've already taken a beating recently. Earnings are coming up in one month or so. The iPhone 3G was released in July. If you do the math, you realize that the previous earnings announcement really had no iPhone 3G sales accounted for in those earnings - so earnings for AAPL have yet to be impacted by any sales of the new iPhone 3G. In addition, we are approaching the holiday season. I expect AAPL's picture to only get rosier.
Likely, those downgrading AAPL are hoping to drive the price down so they can stock up. Many of these individuals have had to exit strong AAPL positions (causing the recent price fall) in order to cover other losses they've sustained in this market. Being able to make a killing in AAPL can help them, and downgrading AAPL can help them make a killing.
That's why I entered two AAPL trades yesterday, both bullish positions.

Yesterday I sold my RIG leap, primarily because a) I got a strong sell signal and b) because the sell criteria I established at entry were breached, as RIG plunged through 120 down to under 110. That option was purchased for $38.80 and sold just a few days later for $27.50, for a loss of $13.30. However, today I've taken on a lower-risk bullish position in RIG, selling a put spread at 95/100. Frankly, RIG would have to break a 52-week low in order for this position to fall out of the money. Sure, it can happen, but I have to say I don't expect it will.

Thursday, September 25, 2008

Matt's Trade Log - 9/25/08

Two trades today, both on UA:
  • Sell 1 UA APR08 25 call
  • Sell 2 UA NOV08 35/40 vertical call spread
The sell of the one call was to exit a position. I had a buy signal going in, but it turned to a sell quickly; this is happening a lot in today's market. Originally I bought 2 calls, and I sold a diagonal on one of them, so I'm keeping that position and getting out of the other while UA falls. Purchase price was $14, sold today for $9.90 for a $4.10 loss.

With UA going down, however, it seemed reasonable to sell premium against it on the way. I sold this 35/40 vertical call spread for $1.55. UA has a fairly strong resistance at about 37 so hopefully we'll be okay on this one.

Monday, September 22, 2008

Matt's Trade Log - 9/22/08

Only one trade today, a Buy 1 RIG JAN10 100 call. Got a buy signal on RIG, and I hope it isn't a fake.

I haven't been speaking much about exit strategy on entered positions, which I believe is a mistake. So I'll start today. RIG's mark is at about 125 today, with a resistance at about 132. So when RIG hits about 130ish, it will be time to consider the position again. On the downside, RIG's reasonable near-term support is at about 120, which is still above the call strike. Should 120 become a resistance line (if RIG falls through 120 and stays), then we'd have to consider cutting our losses.

One nice thing about this option is that the breakeven point, if I held it to expiration (which I won't), is only at about 139, which is a very doable price point for RIG over the next year. Another good thing is that it only contributes a negative theta of about 2, meaning it really isn't losing that much value every day. That's the benefit of buying long-term options.

Saturday, September 20, 2008

An E-Commerce Experiment

We've started a new e-commerce website, Surly Jack's Outpost (http://www.surlyjacks.com). Surly Jack is a fictional character we made up as the fake owner of the store, by the way. Don't let him offend you, he's actually not that bad a guy, really.

Surly Jack's was going to open today, but there were just too many things that needed to be done to make it by today. It should be opening up within the next few days. It will be interesting to see what it takes to make this a profitable venture, if possible.

For updates on the progress, you can follow Surly Jack's blog and/or twitter, or go to MySpace and become his friend.

Friday, September 19, 2008

Matt's Trade Log - 9/19/08

Two trades today:
  • Sell 1 UA OCT08 45 call
  • Sell 4 SPY OCT08 130/132 vertical call spread
Finally, with the rally in SPY, I got a good opportunity to balance my SPY position with a call spread on the high side. A high VIX is making it easier to sell spreads that are pretty far out of the money, and this one appears to be quite a ways outside a near-term resistance line. Of course, with what has been happening lately, who knows. Still, I feel better about balancing out my delta, although it is still positive which doesn't really match my sentiment.

Selling the single UA call makes a diagonal out of half of my original UA position. My UA position is now long 1 UA APR09 25 call and long 1 UA OCT08/APR09 45/25 diagonal. Another way to consider the diagonal is like a covered call, but where the call is covered by another option with a longer time frame, instead of stock.

Thursday, September 18, 2008

Matt's Trade Log - 9/18/08

Finally, a positive day. It wasn't much, but it was something.
  • Buy 5 AAPL OCT08 155/160 vertical put spread
  • Buy 2 UA APR09 25 call
  • Sell 2 SPY OCT08 110/112 vertical put spread
  • Sell 2 RIG OCT08 100/110 vertical put spread
I exited the AAPL trade today. AAPL is continuing to trend downward. My theory is, when the market tanks, the best companies get hit the hardest because those positions are the easiest for institutions to liquidate in order to hedge their other positions. Whether I'm right or not I don't know, but with AAPL down around 130 the odds of it coming up high enough to make that trade profitable were slim. I decided to exit that trade before I lost more money on it. I sold that spread for $1.45 originally and bought it back for $4.75. Ouch.

However, the rest seem like pretty decent trades. Of course, time will tell. The RIG 100/110 seems riskiest, but $92 is the 52-week low for RIG, and it was only below $100 almost a year ago for just a few weeks. 100 seems like a pretty strong support line, both from a technical analysis standpoint and an emotional standpoint.

With the VIX at over 37 today before settling down a bit, I simply couldn't help selling some SPY premium. It's hard to believe it, but I was actually able to sell this 110/112 spread for $.60 even being as far out of the money as it is - SPY closed at $121 today.

Lastly, UA seems to be on an upward trend, so I bought two $25 UA call contracts. UA's options were trading at below valuation and so buying options instead of selling premium seemed the smart thing to do on an upward trend like we had today.

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Matt's Trade Log - 9/17/08

One trade today:
  • Buy 100 RAX
For the heck of it, I thought I'd try buying 100 shares of Rackspace (RAX) at about $9.19.

Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Matt's Trade Log - 9/16/08

The only trade today was:
  • Buy 4 SPY SEP08 123/124 vertical put spread
This exited the last position I had for September expiration. I sold this spread for $.30 and bought it back at $.74, so I took a loss on this position. Serves me right for having positive delta on SPY.

Monday, September 15, 2008

Matt's Trade Log - 9/15/08

Today was a very busy day, with expiration approaching on Friday:
  • Buy 4 RIG SEP08 125/130 vertical put spread
  • Buy 1 RIG SEP08 120/130 vertical put spread
  • Buy 1 GOOG SEP08 460/480 vertical put spread
  • Buy 2 UA SEP08 30/40 vertical call spread
  • Buy 2 FSLR SEP08 250/260 vertical put spread
  • Buy 2 USP SEP08 91/93 vertical put spread
  • Sell 2 SPY OCT08 116/119 vertical put spread
All of the buys were exiting positions, at losses. I had been holding these in hopes of good news going into expiration week. However, extensive bad news in financials is bringing everything down today. With only four days to go to expiration, it is time to get out of these before things get really bad.

With SPY down today it made a good day to sell more premium on the low side. Again, this is giving me more positive delta in SPY than I like, and it is certainly not representative of how I feel. I'm hoping for any sort of a rally in SPY to balance my delta out on the high side.

As for everything else: Well, it has been a very painful month, but I'm out of a lot of the positions I'd gotten myself into. This should simplify my portfolio management, and hopefully we can recover from a bad month or two and gain our losses back as we move toward the end of the calendar year.

Wednesday, September 10, 2008

Matt's Trade Log - 9/10/08

Today was a busy day:
  • Sell 4 FSLR OCT08 185/190 vertical put spread
  • Buy 2 XLF SEP08 22/24 vertical call spread
  • Buy 2 GME SEP08 35/45 vertical put spread
  • Sell 400 SLV
  • Sell 2 SPY OCT08 119/120 vertical put spread
The first and last trades were to enter new positions. FSLR seems to have bounced off of a support line. The breakeven for the 185/190 spread is well below FSLR's historical support. After the drop in SPY yesterday, it evened out a bit today, making for a good day to sell a put spread on SPY. The only problem I have with my SPY position right now is that it has 150 or so positive deltas, which doesn't represent my SPY sentiment at all. When we get another rally, I will try to offset that with some negative delta. Actually, I tried to do that yesterday, but failed to get filled before SPY dropped like a rock.

SLV has beaten me up a bit lately. I would not enter SLV with the current technicals now, so I decided I should exit the position and wait to see when it is right to get in again.

I also exited my XLF position and my GME position. The XLF position was initially sold for $.44 and bought back today for $.28 for a profit of $.16. After commissions it is probably about a wash. I'm planning to stay out of XLF and other UTFs, other than SPY, for a good while now. The GME position I actually entered via two different trades, a 35/40 put spread and a 40/45 put spread, which ended up giving me a 35/45 put spread. The net credit for both spreads, less commissions, was $3.62. I exited the position today at $2.40 for a profit of $1.12. GME was not above the 45 mark, but with the uncertainty in GME lately I decided to buy it back while I could get a profit on it. With expiration in about a week it wasn't worth the risk to hope for it to get much better.

Overall things seem to be getting a bit better. The market is still crazy, but daily losses are slowing, and I hope to see them turn around soon.

Tuesday, September 9, 2008

Matt's Trade Log - 9/9/08

Only one trade actually went through today:
  • Buy 6 AAPL SEP08 185/190 vertical call spread
I originally entered this spread in two different trades. In one I sold the spread for $1.40, the other I sold for $1.37. I bought this spread back today for $0.05, for a profit of $1.35 on half of it and $1.32 on the other half.

Tried to do some other trades today, but they did not go through when they were initially routed, even though they were routed as limit orders under the current ask at the time. Some SPY trades I particularly wish had gone through, as SPY fell quite a bit today, turning a once-profitable SPY position into a non-profitable one. Hopefully SPY will rally a bit later this week and give me a chance to exit.

Monday, September 8, 2008

Matt's Trade Log - 9/8/08

Exited two positions today:
  • Buy 1 GOOG SEP08 510/520 vertical call spread
  • Buy 3 AAPL SEP08 145/150 vertical put spread
The GOOG position I was able to buy back today for $.05. That position was initially sold for $2.35, making an overall profit of $2.30.
The AAPL position I bought back today in order to save some risk, as AAPL was flirting with the $150 mark today. That position was originally sold for $2.02 and bought back today for $1.65. Not a ton of profit but still in the black.

The next few days are going to be primarily exiting positions as expiration approaches, so hang on tight.

Friday, September 5, 2008

Matt's Trade Log - 9/5/08

Two trades today:
  • Buy 1 BIDU SEP08 380/390 vertical call spread
  • Sell 2 FSLR OCT08 230/260 vertical call spread
The first trade was to exit an existing position. This filled at $.05 which I consider to be a point where there is so little left to gain that there is no reason to hold the spread any longer, regardless of the time left in it. That spread was initially sold for $2.50 for a profit of $2.45.

The second trade was to enter a new position due to FSLR's sudden drop. The drop is so sharp that it appears to have completely broken support which was at about 250. This will make the other existing SEP08 250/260 vertical put spread a loser unless something amazing happens next week. Right now I'm just trying to hedge my losses. Problem is, I'm generally bullish on FSLR, so I don't know if this was a good idea or not. Still the technical analysis on FSLR seems to indicate that a sharp rise through 250 again in the near term is unlikely. We'll see.

Matt's Trade Log - 9/4/08

Trades today:
  • Sell 2 SPY SEP08 119/123 vertical put spread
  • Sell 2 RIMM OCT08 125/130 strangle
  • Sell 2 AAPL JAN10 150 call
AAPL has shown the sell signal so it is time to unload the long positions until things turn around for this stock, and pretty much every other stock I'm watching. However, this drop in all my stocks proved good for RIMM, as the huge drop merited me about a $500 gain on the strangle. Had I waited until today (8/5) I would have made even more. However, I'm content to lock in a nice gain on that trade.
With the overall market going down, I decided to sell another vertical put spread on SPY. I'm not bullish on SPY; rather, I'm trying to establish a low side of an iron condor position while SPY tries to find a support line.

Wednesday, September 3, 2008

Matt's Trade Log - 9/3/08

One trade today: Sell 2 RIG NOV08 120 call. Lately RIG is a sinking ship (pun intended). This is a strong company that for some reason Wall Street hates right now. I'll wait until they are liked again and then get back in. For now, I'm sick of losing money on this one.

Matt's Positions as of September 2

The stock market is the definition of fair-weather friend. I looked to be ready to post a modest but reasonable gain for August, when suddenly a week's worth of weirdness took away some $4000 of my portfolio's value.

Anyway, here's the positions as of September 2.

AAPL:
Long 3 SEP08 145/150/185/190 Iron Condor
Short 3 SEP08 185/190 Vertical Call Spread
Short 5 OCT08 155/160 Vertical Put Spread
Long 2 JAN10 150 LEAP

AEMD:
Long 5000 shares

BIDU:
Short 1 SEP08 380/390 Vertical Call Spread

FSLR:
Short 1 SEP08 250/260 Vertical Put Spread

GME:
Short 2 SEP08 35/45 Vertical Put Spread

GOOG:
Long 1 SEP08 460/480/510/520 Iron Condor

RIG:
Short 1 SEP08 120/130 Vertical Put Spread
Short 4 SEP08 125/130 Vertical Put Spread
Short 5 OCT08 115/120 Vertical Put Spread
Long 2 NOV08 120 Calls

RIMM:
Long 2 OCT08 125/130 Strangle

SLV:
Long 400 shares

SPY:
Long 5 SEP08 123/124/131/132 Iron Condor
Short 3 SEP08 123/124 Vertical Put Spread
Short 2 OCT08 120/125 Vertical Put Spread

UA:
Short 2 SEP08 30/40 Vertical Call Spread

USO:
Short 2 SEP08 91/93 Vertical Put Spread

XLF:
Short 2 SEP08 22/24 Vertical Call Spread

This month profit (loss): (5.93%)
Year-to-date profit (loss): (5.85%)

This month's strategy:
  1. Greater focus in fewer positions. I'm too spread out. I was trying some new things, but they backfired on me quite a bit.
  2. Trade indicators on Rule #1 stocks. I need to construct positions that I can exit if the indicators turn to sell. This leads to:
  3. Favor even-numbered positions, so I can close out half if I'm wondering if it is time to exit.
  4. When buying options, always buy at least six months out. I'm getting beaten up on what would otherwise be potentially good strategies because I'm not paying attention to my time frames.
  5. When there is nothing left to do, trade SPY. Don't try to force trades or enter into additional positions.

Friday, August 29, 2008

Matt's Trade Log - 8/29/08

What a lousy week it's been. So much churn in the market has really taken a toll on my position that as of Wednesday looked like I would be posting a pretty solid gain for August. Instead, unless there is a massive rally on Tuesday, it looks like we'll be showing a net loss for August.

Today's trades:
  • Sell 2 SPY OCT08 120/125 vertical put spread
  • Sell 5 RIG OCT08 115/120 vertical put spread
  • Sell 5 AAPL OCT08 155/160 vertical put spread
With the market continuing down it seemed a good time to leg in on the low side of some possible iron condor positions for October. There's simply too little time left in September options to make a reasonable return selling premium there anymore. Each of these trades was structured looking at charts and identifying apparent support points, and trying to sell the spreads at or outside the support points. Hopefully support will remain strong enough for these positions as we move toward October.

Thursday, August 28, 2008

Matt's Trade Log - 8/28/08

Today's only trade: Sell 1 XLF SEP08 23 put.

I originally bought this put for $2.35 and sold it today for $2.19. I sold today because I got a sell signal on XLF.
I think the mistake I made here was accidentally buying the SEP08 put instead of one farther out. Even though XLF hasn't moved too much, the time decay of this option was so high this close to expiration that I lost $.16. If I was going to add the purchase of the put I should have purchased one with more time in the trade.

Oh well, live & learn. That's the cost of tuition in the investing world.

Tuesday, August 26, 2008

Matt's Trade Log - 8/26/08

Did just one trade today:
  • Sell 3 SPY SEP08 123/124 vertical put spread
SPY is just kind of going horizontally now, so I added to this position. Time for selling September premium is getting pretty short though so it is doubtful I will do anymore with SPY in September. I'm at a point where I need to put a bit more of my money to work - I'm just a bit unsure as to where to put it currently.

Thursday, August 21, 2008

Matt's Trade Log - 8/21/08

Today was a busy day, as it appeared to be a good day to enter some new positions. I did four trades:
  • Buy 200 SLV
  • Sell 2 GME SEP08 35/40 vertical put spread
  • Sell 2 USO SEP08 91/93 vertical put spread
  • Sell 1 GOOG SEP08 510/520 vertical call spread
Should have bought the SLV yesterday I think, but today's price in my opinion was still a good buy for the long term. I bought today at $13.66.

The trade for GME was an adjustment more than anything. GME fell for some reason on a strong earnings report today and fell to a support line of about $40. Selling the 35/40 adjusted a previous 40/45 put spread to be 35/45 with a breakeven near the apparent support. This spread was sold for $1.37.

I sold the USO spread based on the turn of the price of oil. All of my other oil-related stocks are also going up, but USO appeared to have the most room to run and hence the most safety in the trade. The USO spread was sold for $.65.

GOOG appears to have taken a turn at a downward-sloping resistance line. I sold the call spread at $2.35 to hopefully profit from the downturn.

Wednesday, August 20, 2008

Matt's Trade Log - 8/20/08

One trade today: Sell 5 SPY SEP08 123/124 vertical put spread. SPY seems to have found some support at around $127. The longer-term support line looks to be at around the 123-124 range. Selling the 123/124 vertical put spread for $.30 gives us a probably of 70% on the trade and puts us in a reasonable position compared to the longer-term support line.

I thought about buying more SLV today but decided to wait. $13 seems awfully low given the low supply of silver available and the high demand for silver. Maybe tomorrow.

Tuesday, August 19, 2008

Matt's Trade Log - 8/19/08

Four trades today:
  • Buy 50 SLV
  • Buy 2 RIMM OCT08 125/130 strangle
  • Sell 2 UA SEP08 30/40 vertical call spread
  • Sell 3 AAPL SEP08 185/190 vertical call spread
SLV finally appeared to have bounced off of a resistance line at about $12-$13. I picked up 50 new shares of SLV at $13, giving me a total of 200 shares.

The RIMM trade was in anticipation of increasing volatility as RIMM's earnings approach in late September. Given the historical performance of RIMM compared to recent performance, their history of strong earnings, a new threat from AAPL and the iPhone 3G, and uncertainty surrounding their general viability as well as the Blackberry Bold, it seems likely that volatility will increase in this position as earnings nears. The plan is to try to sell this strangle back with just a few days before earnings and try to reap a profit from the increased volatility. This trade cost $19.93.
One potential problem with this RIMM strategy, I just realized, is that the options are near-term enough that time decay may eat into the increase in volatility considerably. The next time I try this strategy, I should buy options that are much further out, so time decay doesn't erode so much of the gain I might get from increased volatility.

With UA, I saw a downturn signal that would have been cause to sell if I was long UA. I sold this vertical call spread to try to profit from the downturn. I wanted a breakeven of at least 35, but the 35/40 call spread was too inexpensive to be worthwhile, and the 30/35 too risky. The 30/40 seemed to give a good balance between risk and reward for me. I sold it for $3, which essentially amounts to a 70% probability of success.
One risk here is that $32 was in fact the new support for UA. If so, it is just pulling back a bit before a big run-up. I'll need to watch it to see if it gathers steam and heads upward from $32. If not, we're likely to see it fall back down to $25 again, at which point it would probably be time to buy in again.

AAPL seemed to have hit a resistance line at about $180 for the past several days, so I took the opportunity to sell another call spread at that level, basically doubling down a position I took some time ago. I sold this spread for $1.40, which is a little low for a 5-wide spread, but not too bad.

Monday, August 18, 2008

Matt's Trade Log - 8/18/08

Three trades today:
  • Sell 1 RIG SEP08/JAN10 145 calendar call spread
  • Buy 1 XLF SEP08 23 put
  • Sell 2 XLF SEP08 22/24 vertical call spread
The RIG trade was to exit a bad position. 145 had been a previous support line, but recent activity has me wondering whether RIG will be coming back up any time soon. Where support is for RIG at this point is anyone's guess. These calls were really hurting my overall theta. I wouldn't enter into these trades today, so I figured it was time to exit these positions and wait for RIG to turn. That calendar was originally purchased for a total of $46.26, and sold today for $17.35. Ouch.
I entered two bearish positions on XLF, a financial ETF, which essentially means I'm shorting the financial sector. However, buying the SEP08 put was a mistake, I can see that already. I should have bought a put with more time in it. For now I'll hold on and see if it can work itself out OK over the next few days.

Hopefully, what I learned from RIG is that I was too much in love with that stock for my own good. I kept thinking that it couldn't go down, while it continued downward farther and farther. I should have cut my losses around the first part of July, when I initially received a sell signal, at about $150 mark, instead of today at $125.

Wednesday, August 13, 2008

Matt's Trade Log - 8/13/08

Entered into two positions for RIG today:
  • Buy 2 NOV08 120 call
  • Sell 1 SEP08 120/125 vertical put spread
Got a buy signal for RIG today so I went in. Today was a good day for RIG. The plan is to hold the put spread for about a month. For the calls, I plan to keep them until I get a sell signal, although I might keep one to sell diagonals against for a couple of months.

Tuesday, August 12, 2008

Matt's Trade Log - 8/12/08

Three trades today:
  • Sell 4 AOB JAN10 5 call
  • Buy 1 ISRG AUG08 260/270 vertical put spread
  • Buy 1 FSLR AUG08 280/290 vertical call spread
AOB ended up a loser this time. I bought when I got a buy signal and sold at the sell signal, but ended up buying the call at $5.60 and selling for $4.40. This is a good argument to sell premium instead of buying (or at least to do it in addition to buying), but selling premium on AOB is hard because the price is so low. AOB might be good to stay out of for now, or maybe a different strategy is required.

The trades for ISRG and FSLR were to exit positions. It seemed wise to secure gains in both in case of the possible, however unlikely, wild move in either before expiration. The ISRG spread was initially sold for $3.50 and bought back for $.09 securing a profit of $3.41. The FSLR spread was initially sold for $3.15 and bought back for $.30 securing a profit of $2.85. Not bad for either.

Monday, August 11, 2008

Matt's Trade Log - 8/11/08

Three trades today:
  • Sell 1 GOOG SEP08 460/480 vertical put spread
  • Buy 1 BIDU AUG08 300/310 vertical put spread
  • Buy 1 FSLR AUG08 240/250 vertical put spread
I'm entering a position on GOOG as they seemed to be turning today. Resistance for GOOG appears to be fairly strong at about 470.

I exited positions on BIDU and FSLR as we are nearing expiration. My rules tell me that I should have exited those positions last week, as they were still out of the money last week and we were within ten days of expiration. In hindsight I should have done this, as I ended up not doing too well on each. In the case of BIDU, I sold the spread initially for $2.95 and bought it back today for $4.19, taking a $1.24 loss. In the case of FSLR, I sold the spread initially for $3.25 and bought it back today for $3.20 for a slight $.05 gain, which was surely wiped out by commissions. Of course, in both cases I also have vertical call spreads on the high side which may make each position an overall winner.


Good advice I read today, from Red Option - I generally shouldn't be staying in a position that I wouldn't buy into today. I don't intend to take that advice wholesale, but it is a good thing to think about. I may reevaluate some of my positions and adjust soon.

Friday, August 8, 2008

Matt's Trade Log - 8/8/08

Two trades today:
  • Buy 2 UA AUG08 22.5/25 put spread
  • Sell 2 GME SEP08 40/45 put spread
The first trade was to exit my final UA position as UA continues its upward trend. These options are expiring next week and were nearly worthless so there was no point in holding on for a tiny amount of additional premium, especially when thinkorswim doesn't charge commissions for five-cent trades. The UA trade was initially sold for $.55 and bought back for $.05 making a nice $.50 profit.

The second trade is to enter a new position for GME. GME seems to be bouncing off of a pretty firm resistance line at about $40. I sold this spread for $2.25. We'll watch how it does and see if we're right about the resistance line.

Thursday, August 7, 2008

Matt's Trade Log - 8/7/08

Two trades today:
  • Buy 1 RIG AUG08 155 CALL
  • Sell 5 SPY SEP08 131/132 vertical call spread
The first trade was exiting a position - buying back a call that I sold covered by a RIG LEAP. That call was sold a couple of weeks ago for $2.65, and bought back today for $.05.

The second trade was entering a new position - selling a vertical call spread on SPY. SPY looked this morning to be trading near resistance that has been pretty solid for some time. The only concern is that trading also seems to be consolidating near resistance which could be a precursor to a push through the resistance line. We'll have to watch and see.

Wednesday, August 6, 2008

Matt's Trade Log - 8/6/08

Bought back 2 AAPL AUG08 155/160 vertical put spread. This spread was sold for $2 and bought back today for $1.37, nice. AAPL ended up going a bit higher later in the day and I could probably have bought it back for less, but with just over a week until expiration, and where yesterday AAPL was just below $160, it seemed a good idea to close this out for a profit today with the AAPL mark at around $163-$164.

Tuesday, August 5, 2008

Matt's Trade Log - 8/5/08

Sold 3 JAN09 UA 20 calls with UA at about 34. 34 appears to be a resistance line (previous support) and from that point the stock trended downward somewhat. The calls were purchased on 7/18 at 10.50 and sold today at 14 for a nice profit.

Monday, August 4, 2008

Matt's Trade Log - 8/4/08

Two small trades today so far:

FSLR - Short 2 SEP 250/260 vertical put spread
RIG - Short 3 SEP 125/130 vertical put spread

Both stocks appear to be trading at or near support lines. The RIG trade entails a lot of risk at this time because earnings are coming up on Wednesday. RIG earnings tend to do well so maybe the trade will play out alright. In either case, selling premium today allows us to take advantage of high volatility in RIG due to the upcoming earnings.

Friday, August 1, 2008

Matt's Positions as of August 1

Disclaimer

Without disclosing amounts I'm going to list positions I'm in as of the start of each month. At least I'm going to try. Then I'll see how that plays out in terms of a return on a per-month basis.

AAPL:
Short 2 AUG 155/160 vertical put spread
Short 3 SEP 145/150 vertical put spread
Long 2 JAN10 150 LEAP
I'm generally bullish on AAPL, although I need to do a better job of trading the near-term fluctuations.

AEMD:
Long 5000 shares
AEMD is my swing-for-the-fences play.

AOB:
Long 4 JAN10 5 LEAP
Got a buy indicator on AOB. Plan is to start selling spreads on the fluctuations.

BIDU:
Short 1 AUG 300/310 vertical put spread
Short 1 SEP 380/390 vertical call spread

FSLR:
Long 1 AUG 240/250/280/290 iron condor

ISRG:
Short 1 AUG 260/270 vertical put spread
Long 1 JAN09 250 LEAP

RIG:
Short 1 AUG 155 call
Short 2 SEP 125/130 vertical put spread
Long 1 SEP 145 call
Long 1 JAN10 145 LEAP
The long SEP 145 call is the remainder of a straddle I did at 145. RIG then moved down significantly, and I sold the 145 put for nearly the whole sum of the cost of the straddle. I'm planning to hold the 145 call through earnings. RIG tends to kill on earnings.

SLV:
Long 150 shares

UA:
Short 2 AUG 22.5/25 vertical put spread
Long JAN09 20 LEAP

I'm also in iron condors in DIA and SPY that are autotraded by Red Option. Out of respect to Red Option I won't disclose those positions.