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Wednesday, December 31, 2008
Matt's Positions as of December 31
AAPL:
Long 1 JAN11 100 Call
AEMD:
Long 7000 shares
CTSH:
Short 1 JAN09 20 Call
Long 2 JAN11 15 Call
GME:
Long 2 JAN11 20 Call
RIMM:
Short 1 FEB09 40 Call
Long 1 JAN11 30 Call
SLV:
Long 100 Shares
SPY:
Short 2 JAN09 94/97 Vertical Call Spread
Short 2 JAN09 95/98 Vertical Call Spread
Short 2 FEB09 80/83 Vertical Put Spread
Short 2 FEB09 96/98 Vertical Call Spread
UA:
Short 1 JAN09 22.50 Call
Long 1 APR09 25 Call
This month profit (loss): 2.3%
Year-to-date profit (loss): (37.5%)
December was, hopefully, a turnaround month and not a fluke. Most of the December expirations ended up in the money for me and I was able to lock in some solid profits, both with the vertical spreads on SPY and with some diagonal positions traded against the long options on some preferred stocks.
Strategy going into 2009: Stay the course and try to make this strategy work for me. A 2.3% gain per month is not too bad annually, if December was not a fluke that is.
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Matt's Monthly Update
Monday, December 1, 2008
Matt's Positions as of December 1
AAPL:
Long 1 JAN11 100 Call
AEMD:
Long 8000 shares
CTSH:
Long 2 JAN11 15 Call
FSLR:
Short 2/1 DEC08 110/115 Backratio Spread
SLV:
Long 100 shares
SPY:
Long 2 DEC08 68/69/106/109 Iron Condor
Long 2 DEC08 68/69/106/108 Iron Condor
Long 2 DEC08 78/79/97/99 Iron Condor
Short 2 DEC08 85/87 Vertical Put Spread
Long 2 DEC08 84/86 Vertical Put Spread
UA:
Long 1 APR09 25 Call
This month profit (loss): (9.2%)
Year-to-date profit (loss): (38.9%)
Some adjustments I'm going to make:
Long 1 JAN11 100 Call
AEMD:
Long 8000 shares
CTSH:
Long 2 JAN11 15 Call
FSLR:
Short 2/1 DEC08 110/115 Backratio Spread
SLV:
Long 100 shares
SPY:
Long 2 DEC08 68/69/106/109 Iron Condor
Long 2 DEC08 68/69/106/108 Iron Condor
Long 2 DEC08 78/79/97/99 Iron Condor
Short 2 DEC08 85/87 Vertical Put Spread
Long 2 DEC08 84/86 Vertical Put Spread
UA:
Long 1 APR09 25 Call
This month profit (loss): (9.2%)
Year-to-date profit (loss): (38.9%)
Some adjustments I'm going to make:
- Not going to do backratio spreads any more, at least not for a while. They consume too much cash.
- Need to monitor the long positions a bit closer, to figure out how to sell premium against them.
- Need to be thinking about when to get out of the UA call.
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Matt's Monthly Update
Friday, October 31, 2008
Matt's Positions as of October 31
I've kinda given up on logging each transaction, it is a lot of work. Here's the current positions:
AAPL:
Short 2 NOV08 75/85 Vertical Call Spread
Short 2/1 NOV08 120/125 Backratio Spread
Long 1 NOV08/JAN11 125/100 Diagonal Spread
AEMD:
Long 7000 shares
SPY:
Long 2 NOV08 82/84/123/125 Iron Condor
Long 2 NOV08 86/88/114/115 Iron Condor
Short 2 NOV08 105/107 Vertical Call Spread
Short 2 NOV08 106/108 Vertical Call Spread
Short 2 NOV08 110/111 Vertical Call Spread
Short 2 DEC08 97/99 Vertical Call Spread
Short 2 DEC08 106/108 Vertical Call Spread
UA:
Long 1 NOV08/APR09 25 Calendar Spread
This month profit (loss): (5.1%)
Year-to-date profit (loss): (32.7%)
Those numbers don't look very good, but they really don't tell the whole picture. A couple of weeks ago, the this-month loss was at around 13%. This have been turning around the latter half of the month, and we are starting to come back.
To put it another way, I think last month's strategy was sound and paying off. Record highs in the VIX allowed me to leg in, a vertical spread at a time, into some very wide iron condors on SPY, and I have managed to turn my delta around to a better number.
Next month will be telling, so we'll have to watch carefully and see.
AAPL:
Short 2 NOV08 75/85 Vertical Call Spread
Short 2/1 NOV08 120/125 Backratio Spread
Long 1 NOV08/JAN11 125/100 Diagonal Spread
AEMD:
Long 7000 shares
SPY:
Long 2 NOV08 82/84/123/125 Iron Condor
Long 2 NOV08 86/88/114/115 Iron Condor
Short 2 NOV08 105/107 Vertical Call Spread
Short 2 NOV08 106/108 Vertical Call Spread
Short 2 NOV08 110/111 Vertical Call Spread
Short 2 DEC08 97/99 Vertical Call Spread
Short 2 DEC08 106/108 Vertical Call Spread
UA:
Long 1 NOV08/APR09 25 Calendar Spread
This month profit (loss): (5.1%)
Year-to-date profit (loss): (32.7%)
Those numbers don't look very good, but they really don't tell the whole picture. A couple of weeks ago, the this-month loss was at around 13%. This have been turning around the latter half of the month, and we are starting to come back.
To put it another way, I think last month's strategy was sound and paying off. Record highs in the VIX allowed me to leg in, a vertical spread at a time, into some very wide iron condors on SPY, and I have managed to turn my delta around to a better number.
Next month will be telling, so we'll have to watch carefully and see.
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Matt's Monthly Update
Friday, October 3, 2008
Matt's Positions as of October 3
DISASTER! Who can figure out what securities are going to do when the US government selectively bails out, or doesn't bail out, companies at their own discretion and whim? Arrgh.
I've fallen a bit behind on recent transactions, so I'll just do the monthly position update, and forward strategy.
AAPL:
Short 2 NOV08 75/85 Vertical Call Spread
Short 2/1 NOV08 120/125 Backratio Spread
AEMD:
Long 6000 shares
FSLR:
Long 4/4/2/2 OCT08 185/190/230/260 Iron Condor
GLD:
Long 1 JAN10 85 put
RIG:
Short 2 OCT08 100/110 Vertical Put Spread
Short 5 OCT08 115/120 Vertical Put Spread
Short 2 NOV08 95/100 Vertical Put Spread
SPY:
Long 2/2/4/4 OCT08 110/112/130/132 Iron Condor
Short 2 OCT08 116/123 Vertical Put Spread
Short 2 OCT08 119/125 Vertical Put Spread
Short 2 NOV08 123/125 Vertical Call Spread
UA:
Short 2 NOV08 35/40 Vertical Call Spread
Long 1 APR09 25 Call
This month profit (loss): (24.73%)
Year-to-date profit (loss): (29.08%)
This month's strategy:
I've fallen a bit behind on recent transactions, so I'll just do the monthly position update, and forward strategy.
AAPL:
Short 2 NOV08 75/85 Vertical Call Spread
Short 2/1 NOV08 120/125 Backratio Spread
AEMD:
Long 6000 shares
FSLR:
Long 4/4/2/2 OCT08 185/190/230/260 Iron Condor
GLD:
Long 1 JAN10 85 put
RIG:
Short 2 OCT08 100/110 Vertical Put Spread
Short 5 OCT08 115/120 Vertical Put Spread
Short 2 NOV08 95/100 Vertical Put Spread
SPY:
Long 2/2/4/4 OCT08 110/112/130/132 Iron Condor
Short 2 OCT08 116/123 Vertical Put Spread
Short 2 OCT08 119/125 Vertical Put Spread
Short 2 NOV08 123/125 Vertical Call Spread
UA:
Short 2 NOV08 35/40 Vertical Call Spread
Long 1 APR09 25 Call
This month profit (loss): (24.73%)
Year-to-date profit (loss): (29.08%)
This month's strategy:
- Keep last month's #1 - Greater focus in fewer positions. I forgot this a bit, still need to try to focus more.
- Buy in on strong upward indicators for Rule #1 stocks. Sell diagonals against the call options to fund the transaction over the long term.
- Adjust SPY strategy so delta is in better harmony with sentiment (bearish).
- Don't force any positions. Cash is king. Great opportunities are going to come soon, and I want to be prepared to take advantage.
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Matt's Monthly Update
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
Matt's Trade Log - 9/30/08
Forgot to enter yesterday's trades, so I will do those first:
That downgrade, in my opinion, can only be reasonably explained by market manipulation. AAPL is one of the strongest stocks around, and they've already taken a beating recently. Earnings are coming up in one month or so. The iPhone 3G was released in July. If you do the math, you realize that the previous earnings announcement really had no iPhone 3G sales accounted for in those earnings - so earnings for AAPL have yet to be impacted by any sales of the new iPhone 3G. In addition, we are approaching the holiday season. I expect AAPL's picture to only get rosier.
Likely, those downgrading AAPL are hoping to drive the price down so they can stock up. Many of these individuals have had to exit strong AAPL positions (causing the recent price fall) in order to cover other losses they've sustained in this market. Being able to make a killing in AAPL can help them, and downgrading AAPL can help them make a killing.
That's why I entered two AAPL trades yesterday, both bullish positions.
Yesterday I sold my RIG leap, primarily because a) I got a strong sell signal and b) because the sell criteria I established at entry were breached, as RIG plunged through 120 down to under 110. That option was purchased for $38.80 and sold just a few days later for $27.50, for a loss of $13.30. However, today I've taken on a lower-risk bullish position in RIG, selling a put spread at 95/100. Frankly, RIG would have to break a 52-week low in order for this position to fall out of the money. Sure, it can happen, but I have to say I don't expect it will.
- Sell 1 RIG JAN10 100 call
- Sell 1/2 AAPL NOV08 120/125 backratio put spread
- Sell 2 AAPL NOV08 75/85 vertical put spread
- Sell 2 RIG NOV08 95/100 vertical put spread
That downgrade, in my opinion, can only be reasonably explained by market manipulation. AAPL is one of the strongest stocks around, and they've already taken a beating recently. Earnings are coming up in one month or so. The iPhone 3G was released in July. If you do the math, you realize that the previous earnings announcement really had no iPhone 3G sales accounted for in those earnings - so earnings for AAPL have yet to be impacted by any sales of the new iPhone 3G. In addition, we are approaching the holiday season. I expect AAPL's picture to only get rosier.
Likely, those downgrading AAPL are hoping to drive the price down so they can stock up. Many of these individuals have had to exit strong AAPL positions (causing the recent price fall) in order to cover other losses they've sustained in this market. Being able to make a killing in AAPL can help them, and downgrading AAPL can help them make a killing.
That's why I entered two AAPL trades yesterday, both bullish positions.
Yesterday I sold my RIG leap, primarily because a) I got a strong sell signal and b) because the sell criteria I established at entry were breached, as RIG plunged through 120 down to under 110. That option was purchased for $38.80 and sold just a few days later for $27.50, for a loss of $13.30. However, today I've taken on a lower-risk bullish position in RIG, selling a put spread at 95/100. Frankly, RIG would have to break a 52-week low in order for this position to fall out of the money. Sure, it can happen, but I have to say I don't expect it will.
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Matt's Trade Log
Thursday, September 25, 2008
Matt's Trade Log - 9/25/08
Two trades today, both on UA:
With UA going down, however, it seemed reasonable to sell premium against it on the way. I sold this 35/40 vertical call spread for $1.55. UA has a fairly strong resistance at about 37 so hopefully we'll be okay on this one.
- Sell 1 UA APR08 25 call
- Sell 2 UA NOV08 35/40 vertical call spread
With UA going down, however, it seemed reasonable to sell premium against it on the way. I sold this 35/40 vertical call spread for $1.55. UA has a fairly strong resistance at about 37 so hopefully we'll be okay on this one.
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Matt's Trade Log
Monday, September 22, 2008
Matt's Trade Log - 9/22/08
Only one trade today, a Buy 1 RIG JAN10 100 call. Got a buy signal on RIG, and I hope it isn't a fake.
I haven't been speaking much about exit strategy on entered positions, which I believe is a mistake. So I'll start today. RIG's mark is at about 125 today, with a resistance at about 132. So when RIG hits about 130ish, it will be time to consider the position again. On the downside, RIG's reasonable near-term support is at about 120, which is still above the call strike. Should 120 become a resistance line (if RIG falls through 120 and stays), then we'd have to consider cutting our losses.
One nice thing about this option is that the breakeven point, if I held it to expiration (which I won't), is only at about 139, which is a very doable price point for RIG over the next year. Another good thing is that it only contributes a negative theta of about 2, meaning it really isn't losing that much value every day. That's the benefit of buying long-term options.
I haven't been speaking much about exit strategy on entered positions, which I believe is a mistake. So I'll start today. RIG's mark is at about 125 today, with a resistance at about 132. So when RIG hits about 130ish, it will be time to consider the position again. On the downside, RIG's reasonable near-term support is at about 120, which is still above the call strike. Should 120 become a resistance line (if RIG falls through 120 and stays), then we'd have to consider cutting our losses.
One nice thing about this option is that the breakeven point, if I held it to expiration (which I won't), is only at about 139, which is a very doable price point for RIG over the next year. Another good thing is that it only contributes a negative theta of about 2, meaning it really isn't losing that much value every day. That's the benefit of buying long-term options.
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Matt's Trade Log
Saturday, September 20, 2008
An E-Commerce Experiment
We've started a new e-commerce website, Surly Jack's Outpost (http://www.surlyjacks.com). Surly Jack is a fictional character we made up as the fake owner of the store, by the way. Don't let him offend you, he's actually not that bad a guy, really.
Surly Jack's was going to open today, but there were just too many things that needed to be done to make it by today. It should be opening up within the next few days. It will be interesting to see what it takes to make this a profitable venture, if possible.
For updates on the progress, you can follow Surly Jack's blog and/or twitter, or go to MySpace and become his friend.
Surly Jack's was going to open today, but there were just too many things that needed to be done to make it by today. It should be opening up within the next few days. It will be interesting to see what it takes to make this a profitable venture, if possible.
For updates on the progress, you can follow Surly Jack's blog and/or twitter, or go to MySpace and become his friend.
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Ventures
Friday, September 19, 2008
Matt's Trade Log - 9/19/08
Two trades today:
Selling the single UA call makes a diagonal out of half of my original UA position. My UA position is now long 1 UA APR09 25 call and long 1 UA OCT08/APR09 45/25 diagonal. Another way to consider the diagonal is like a covered call, but where the call is covered by another option with a longer time frame, instead of stock.
- Sell 1 UA OCT08 45 call
- Sell 4 SPY OCT08 130/132 vertical call spread
Selling the single UA call makes a diagonal out of half of my original UA position. My UA position is now long 1 UA APR09 25 call and long 1 UA OCT08/APR09 45/25 diagonal. Another way to consider the diagonal is like a covered call, but where the call is covered by another option with a longer time frame, instead of stock.
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Matt's Trade Log
Thursday, September 18, 2008
Matt's Trade Log - 9/18/08
Finally, a positive day. It wasn't much, but it was something.
However, the rest seem like pretty decent trades. Of course, time will tell. The RIG 100/110 seems riskiest, but $92 is the 52-week low for RIG, and it was only below $100 almost a year ago for just a few weeks. 100 seems like a pretty strong support line, both from a technical analysis standpoint and an emotional standpoint.
With the VIX at over 37 today before settling down a bit, I simply couldn't help selling some SPY premium. It's hard to believe it, but I was actually able to sell this 110/112 spread for $.60 even being as far out of the money as it is - SPY closed at $121 today.
Lastly, UA seems to be on an upward trend, so I bought two $25 UA call contracts. UA's options were trading at below valuation and so buying options instead of selling premium seemed the smart thing to do on an upward trend like we had today.
- Buy 5 AAPL OCT08 155/160 vertical put spread
- Buy 2 UA APR09 25 call
- Sell 2 SPY OCT08 110/112 vertical put spread
- Sell 2 RIG OCT08 100/110 vertical put spread
However, the rest seem like pretty decent trades. Of course, time will tell. The RIG 100/110 seems riskiest, but $92 is the 52-week low for RIG, and it was only below $100 almost a year ago for just a few weeks. 100 seems like a pretty strong support line, both from a technical analysis standpoint and an emotional standpoint.
With the VIX at over 37 today before settling down a bit, I simply couldn't help selling some SPY premium. It's hard to believe it, but I was actually able to sell this 110/112 spread for $.60 even being as far out of the money as it is - SPY closed at $121 today.
Lastly, UA seems to be on an upward trend, so I bought two $25 UA call contracts. UA's options were trading at below valuation and so buying options instead of selling premium seemed the smart thing to do on an upward trend like we had today.
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Matt's Trade Log
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
Matt's Trade Log - 9/17/08
One trade today:
- Buy 100 RAX
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Matt's Trade Log
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
Matt's Trade Log - 9/16/08
The only trade today was:
- Buy 4 SPY SEP08 123/124 vertical put spread
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Matt's Trade Log
Monday, September 15, 2008
Matt's Trade Log - 9/15/08
Today was a very busy day, with expiration approaching on Friday:
With SPY down today it made a good day to sell more premium on the low side. Again, this is giving me more positive delta in SPY than I like, and it is certainly not representative of how I feel. I'm hoping for any sort of a rally in SPY to balance my delta out on the high side.
As for everything else: Well, it has been a very painful month, but I'm out of a lot of the positions I'd gotten myself into. This should simplify my portfolio management, and hopefully we can recover from a bad month or two and gain our losses back as we move toward the end of the calendar year.
- Buy 4 RIG SEP08 125/130 vertical put spread
- Buy 1 RIG SEP08 120/130 vertical put spread
- Buy 1 GOOG SEP08 460/480 vertical put spread
- Buy 2 UA SEP08 30/40 vertical call spread
- Buy 2 FSLR SEP08 250/260 vertical put spread
- Buy 2 USP SEP08 91/93 vertical put spread
- Sell 2 SPY OCT08 116/119 vertical put spread
With SPY down today it made a good day to sell more premium on the low side. Again, this is giving me more positive delta in SPY than I like, and it is certainly not representative of how I feel. I'm hoping for any sort of a rally in SPY to balance my delta out on the high side.
As for everything else: Well, it has been a very painful month, but I'm out of a lot of the positions I'd gotten myself into. This should simplify my portfolio management, and hopefully we can recover from a bad month or two and gain our losses back as we move toward the end of the calendar year.
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Matt's Trade Log
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
Matt's Trade Log - 9/10/08
Today was a busy day:
SLV has beaten me up a bit lately. I would not enter SLV with the current technicals now, so I decided I should exit the position and wait to see when it is right to get in again.
I also exited my XLF position and my GME position. The XLF position was initially sold for $.44 and bought back today for $.28 for a profit of $.16. After commissions it is probably about a wash. I'm planning to stay out of XLF and other UTFs, other than SPY, for a good while now. The GME position I actually entered via two different trades, a 35/40 put spread and a 40/45 put spread, which ended up giving me a 35/45 put spread. The net credit for both spreads, less commissions, was $3.62. I exited the position today at $2.40 for a profit of $1.12. GME was not above the 45 mark, but with the uncertainty in GME lately I decided to buy it back while I could get a profit on it. With expiration in about a week it wasn't worth the risk to hope for it to get much better.
Overall things seem to be getting a bit better. The market is still crazy, but daily losses are slowing, and I hope to see them turn around soon.
- Sell 4 FSLR OCT08 185/190 vertical put spread
- Buy 2 XLF SEP08 22/24 vertical call spread
- Buy 2 GME SEP08 35/45 vertical put spread
- Sell 400 SLV
- Sell 2 SPY OCT08 119/120 vertical put spread
SLV has beaten me up a bit lately. I would not enter SLV with the current technicals now, so I decided I should exit the position and wait to see when it is right to get in again.
I also exited my XLF position and my GME position. The XLF position was initially sold for $.44 and bought back today for $.28 for a profit of $.16. After commissions it is probably about a wash. I'm planning to stay out of XLF and other UTFs, other than SPY, for a good while now. The GME position I actually entered via two different trades, a 35/40 put spread and a 40/45 put spread, which ended up giving me a 35/45 put spread. The net credit for both spreads, less commissions, was $3.62. I exited the position today at $2.40 for a profit of $1.12. GME was not above the 45 mark, but with the uncertainty in GME lately I decided to buy it back while I could get a profit on it. With expiration in about a week it wasn't worth the risk to hope for it to get much better.
Overall things seem to be getting a bit better. The market is still crazy, but daily losses are slowing, and I hope to see them turn around soon.
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Matt's Trade Log
Tuesday, September 9, 2008
Matt's Trade Log - 9/9/08
Only one trade actually went through today:
Tried to do some other trades today, but they did not go through when they were initially routed, even though they were routed as limit orders under the current ask at the time. Some SPY trades I particularly wish had gone through, as SPY fell quite a bit today, turning a once-profitable SPY position into a non-profitable one. Hopefully SPY will rally a bit later this week and give me a chance to exit.
- Buy 6 AAPL SEP08 185/190 vertical call spread
Tried to do some other trades today, but they did not go through when they were initially routed, even though they were routed as limit orders under the current ask at the time. Some SPY trades I particularly wish had gone through, as SPY fell quite a bit today, turning a once-profitable SPY position into a non-profitable one. Hopefully SPY will rally a bit later this week and give me a chance to exit.
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Matt's Trade Log
Monday, September 8, 2008
Matt's Trade Log - 9/8/08
Exited two positions today:
The AAPL position I bought back today in order to save some risk, as AAPL was flirting with the $150 mark today. That position was originally sold for $2.02 and bought back today for $1.65. Not a ton of profit but still in the black.
The next few days are going to be primarily exiting positions as expiration approaches, so hang on tight.
- Buy 1 GOOG SEP08 510/520 vertical call spread
- Buy 3 AAPL SEP08 145/150 vertical put spread
The AAPL position I bought back today in order to save some risk, as AAPL was flirting with the $150 mark today. That position was originally sold for $2.02 and bought back today for $1.65. Not a ton of profit but still in the black.
The next few days are going to be primarily exiting positions as expiration approaches, so hang on tight.
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Matt's Trade Log
Friday, September 5, 2008
Matt's Trade Log - 9/5/08
Two trades today:
The second trade was to enter a new position due to FSLR's sudden drop. The drop is so sharp that it appears to have completely broken support which was at about 250. This will make the other existing SEP08 250/260 vertical put spread a loser unless something amazing happens next week. Right now I'm just trying to hedge my losses. Problem is, I'm generally bullish on FSLR, so I don't know if this was a good idea or not. Still the technical analysis on FSLR seems to indicate that a sharp rise through 250 again in the near term is unlikely. We'll see.
- Buy 1 BIDU SEP08 380/390 vertical call spread
- Sell 2 FSLR OCT08 230/260 vertical call spread
The second trade was to enter a new position due to FSLR's sudden drop. The drop is so sharp that it appears to have completely broken support which was at about 250. This will make the other existing SEP08 250/260 vertical put spread a loser unless something amazing happens next week. Right now I'm just trying to hedge my losses. Problem is, I'm generally bullish on FSLR, so I don't know if this was a good idea or not. Still the technical analysis on FSLR seems to indicate that a sharp rise through 250 again in the near term is unlikely. We'll see.
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Matt's Trade Log
Matt's Trade Log - 9/4/08
Trades today:
With the overall market going down, I decided to sell another vertical put spread on SPY. I'm not bullish on SPY; rather, I'm trying to establish a low side of an iron condor position while SPY tries to find a support line.
- Sell 2 SPY SEP08 119/123 vertical put spread
- Sell 2 RIMM OCT08 125/130 strangle
- Sell 2 AAPL JAN10 150 call
With the overall market going down, I decided to sell another vertical put spread on SPY. I'm not bullish on SPY; rather, I'm trying to establish a low side of an iron condor position while SPY tries to find a support line.
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Matt's Trade Log
Wednesday, September 3, 2008
Matt's Trade Log - 9/3/08
One trade today: Sell 2 RIG NOV08 120 call. Lately RIG is a sinking ship (pun intended). This is a strong company that for some reason Wall Street hates right now. I'll wait until they are liked again and then get back in. For now, I'm sick of losing money on this one.
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Matt's Trade Log
Matt's Positions as of September 2
The stock market is the definition of fair-weather friend. I looked to be ready to post a modest but reasonable gain for August, when suddenly a week's worth of weirdness took away some $4000 of my portfolio's value.
Anyway, here's the positions as of September 2.
AAPL:
Long 3 SEP08 145/150/185/190 Iron Condor
Short 3 SEP08 185/190 Vertical Call Spread
Short 5 OCT08 155/160 Vertical Put Spread
Long 2 JAN10 150 LEAP
AEMD:
Long 5000 shares
BIDU:
Short 1 SEP08 380/390 Vertical Call Spread
FSLR:
Short 1 SEP08 250/260 Vertical Put Spread
GME:
Short 2 SEP08 35/45 Vertical Put Spread
GOOG:
Long 1 SEP08 460/480/510/520 Iron Condor
RIG:
Short 1 SEP08 120/130 Vertical Put Spread
Short 4 SEP08 125/130 Vertical Put Spread
Short 5 OCT08 115/120 Vertical Put Spread
Long 2 NOV08 120 Calls
RIMM:
Long 2 OCT08 125/130 Strangle
SLV:
Long 400 shares
SPY:
Long 5 SEP08 123/124/131/132 Iron Condor
Short 3 SEP08 123/124 Vertical Put Spread
Short 2 OCT08 120/125 Vertical Put Spread
UA:
Short 2 SEP08 30/40 Vertical Call Spread
USO:
Short 2 SEP08 91/93 Vertical Put Spread
XLF:
Short 2 SEP08 22/24 Vertical Call Spread
This month profit (loss): (5.93%)
Year-to-date profit (loss): (5.85%)
This month's strategy:
Anyway, here's the positions as of September 2.
AAPL:
Long 3 SEP08 145/150/185/190 Iron Condor
Short 3 SEP08 185/190 Vertical Call Spread
Short 5 OCT08 155/160 Vertical Put Spread
Long 2 JAN10 150 LEAP
AEMD:
Long 5000 shares
BIDU:
Short 1 SEP08 380/390 Vertical Call Spread
FSLR:
Short 1 SEP08 250/260 Vertical Put Spread
GME:
Short 2 SEP08 35/45 Vertical Put Spread
GOOG:
Long 1 SEP08 460/480/510/520 Iron Condor
RIG:
Short 1 SEP08 120/130 Vertical Put Spread
Short 4 SEP08 125/130 Vertical Put Spread
Short 5 OCT08 115/120 Vertical Put Spread
Long 2 NOV08 120 Calls
RIMM:
Long 2 OCT08 125/130 Strangle
SLV:
Long 400 shares
SPY:
Long 5 SEP08 123/124/131/132 Iron Condor
Short 3 SEP08 123/124 Vertical Put Spread
Short 2 OCT08 120/125 Vertical Put Spread
UA:
Short 2 SEP08 30/40 Vertical Call Spread
USO:
Short 2 SEP08 91/93 Vertical Put Spread
XLF:
Short 2 SEP08 22/24 Vertical Call Spread
This month profit (loss): (5.93%)
Year-to-date profit (loss): (5.85%)
This month's strategy:
- Greater focus in fewer positions. I'm too spread out. I was trying some new things, but they backfired on me quite a bit.
- Trade indicators on Rule #1 stocks. I need to construct positions that I can exit if the indicators turn to sell. This leads to:
- Favor even-numbered positions, so I can close out half if I'm wondering if it is time to exit.
- When buying options, always buy at least six months out. I'm getting beaten up on what would otherwise be potentially good strategies because I'm not paying attention to my time frames.
- When there is nothing left to do, trade SPY. Don't try to force trades or enter into additional positions.
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Matt's Monthly Update
Friday, August 29, 2008
Matt's Trade Log - 8/29/08
What a lousy week it's been. So much churn in the market has really taken a toll on my position that as of Wednesday looked like I would be posting a pretty solid gain for August. Instead, unless there is a massive rally on Tuesday, it looks like we'll be showing a net loss for August.
Today's trades:
Today's trades:
- Sell 2 SPY OCT08 120/125 vertical put spread
- Sell 5 RIG OCT08 115/120 vertical put spread
- Sell 5 AAPL OCT08 155/160 vertical put spread
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Matt's Trade Log
Thursday, August 28, 2008
Matt's Trade Log - 8/28/08
Today's only trade: Sell 1 XLF SEP08 23 put.
I originally bought this put for $2.35 and sold it today for $2.19. I sold today because I got a sell signal on XLF.
I think the mistake I made here was accidentally buying the SEP08 put instead of one farther out. Even though XLF hasn't moved too much, the time decay of this option was so high this close to expiration that I lost $.16. If I was going to add the purchase of the put I should have purchased one with more time in the trade.
Oh well, live & learn. That's the cost of tuition in the investing world.
I originally bought this put for $2.35 and sold it today for $2.19. I sold today because I got a sell signal on XLF.
I think the mistake I made here was accidentally buying the SEP08 put instead of one farther out. Even though XLF hasn't moved too much, the time decay of this option was so high this close to expiration that I lost $.16. If I was going to add the purchase of the put I should have purchased one with more time in the trade.
Oh well, live & learn. That's the cost of tuition in the investing world.
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Matt's Trade Log
Tuesday, August 26, 2008
Matt's Trade Log - 8/26/08
Did just one trade today:
- Sell 3 SPY SEP08 123/124 vertical put spread
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Matt's Trade Log
Thursday, August 21, 2008
Matt's Trade Log - 8/21/08
Today was a busy day, as it appeared to be a good day to enter some new positions. I did four trades:
The trade for GME was an adjustment more than anything. GME fell for some reason on a strong earnings report today and fell to a support line of about $40. Selling the 35/40 adjusted a previous 40/45 put spread to be 35/45 with a breakeven near the apparent support. This spread was sold for $1.37.
I sold the USO spread based on the turn of the price of oil. All of my other oil-related stocks are also going up, but USO appeared to have the most room to run and hence the most safety in the trade. The USO spread was sold for $.65.
GOOG appears to have taken a turn at a downward-sloping resistance line. I sold the call spread at $2.35 to hopefully profit from the downturn.
- Buy 200 SLV
- Sell 2 GME SEP08 35/40 vertical put spread
- Sell 2 USO SEP08 91/93 vertical put spread
- Sell 1 GOOG SEP08 510/520 vertical call spread
The trade for GME was an adjustment more than anything. GME fell for some reason on a strong earnings report today and fell to a support line of about $40. Selling the 35/40 adjusted a previous 40/45 put spread to be 35/45 with a breakeven near the apparent support. This spread was sold for $1.37.
I sold the USO spread based on the turn of the price of oil. All of my other oil-related stocks are also going up, but USO appeared to have the most room to run and hence the most safety in the trade. The USO spread was sold for $.65.
GOOG appears to have taken a turn at a downward-sloping resistance line. I sold the call spread at $2.35 to hopefully profit from the downturn.
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Matt's Trade Log
Wednesday, August 20, 2008
Matt's Trade Log - 8/20/08
One trade today: Sell 5 SPY SEP08 123/124 vertical put spread. SPY seems to have found some support at around $127. The longer-term support line looks to be at around the 123-124 range. Selling the 123/124 vertical put spread for $.30 gives us a probably of 70% on the trade and puts us in a reasonable position compared to the longer-term support line.
I thought about buying more SLV today but decided to wait. $13 seems awfully low given the low supply of silver available and the high demand for silver. Maybe tomorrow.
I thought about buying more SLV today but decided to wait. $13 seems awfully low given the low supply of silver available and the high demand for silver. Maybe tomorrow.
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Matt's Trade Log
Tuesday, August 19, 2008
Matt's Trade Log - 8/19/08
Four trades today:
The RIMM trade was in anticipation of increasing volatility as RIMM's earnings approach in late September. Given the historical performance of RIMM compared to recent performance, their history of strong earnings, a new threat from AAPL and the iPhone 3G, and uncertainty surrounding their general viability as well as the Blackberry Bold, it seems likely that volatility will increase in this position as earnings nears. The plan is to try to sell this strangle back with just a few days before earnings and try to reap a profit from the increased volatility. This trade cost $19.93.
One potential problem with this RIMM strategy, I just realized, is that the options are near-term enough that time decay may eat into the increase in volatility considerably. The next time I try this strategy, I should buy options that are much further out, so time decay doesn't erode so much of the gain I might get from increased volatility.
With UA, I saw a downturn signal that would have been cause to sell if I was long UA. I sold this vertical call spread to try to profit from the downturn. I wanted a breakeven of at least 35, but the 35/40 call spread was too inexpensive to be worthwhile, and the 30/35 too risky. The 30/40 seemed to give a good balance between risk and reward for me. I sold it for $3, which essentially amounts to a 70% probability of success.
One risk here is that $32 was in fact the new support for UA. If so, it is just pulling back a bit before a big run-up. I'll need to watch it to see if it gathers steam and heads upward from $32. If not, we're likely to see it fall back down to $25 again, at which point it would probably be time to buy in again.
AAPL seemed to have hit a resistance line at about $180 for the past several days, so I took the opportunity to sell another call spread at that level, basically doubling down a position I took some time ago. I sold this spread for $1.40, which is a little low for a 5-wide spread, but not too bad.
- Buy 50 SLV
- Buy 2 RIMM OCT08 125/130 strangle
- Sell 2 UA SEP08 30/40 vertical call spread
- Sell 3 AAPL SEP08 185/190 vertical call spread
The RIMM trade was in anticipation of increasing volatility as RIMM's earnings approach in late September. Given the historical performance of RIMM compared to recent performance, their history of strong earnings, a new threat from AAPL and the iPhone 3G, and uncertainty surrounding their general viability as well as the Blackberry Bold, it seems likely that volatility will increase in this position as earnings nears. The plan is to try to sell this strangle back with just a few days before earnings and try to reap a profit from the increased volatility. This trade cost $19.93.
One potential problem with this RIMM strategy, I just realized, is that the options are near-term enough that time decay may eat into the increase in volatility considerably. The next time I try this strategy, I should buy options that are much further out, so time decay doesn't erode so much of the gain I might get from increased volatility.
With UA, I saw a downturn signal that would have been cause to sell if I was long UA. I sold this vertical call spread to try to profit from the downturn. I wanted a breakeven of at least 35, but the 35/40 call spread was too inexpensive to be worthwhile, and the 30/35 too risky. The 30/40 seemed to give a good balance between risk and reward for me. I sold it for $3, which essentially amounts to a 70% probability of success.
One risk here is that $32 was in fact the new support for UA. If so, it is just pulling back a bit before a big run-up. I'll need to watch it to see if it gathers steam and heads upward from $32. If not, we're likely to see it fall back down to $25 again, at which point it would probably be time to buy in again.
AAPL seemed to have hit a resistance line at about $180 for the past several days, so I took the opportunity to sell another call spread at that level, basically doubling down a position I took some time ago. I sold this spread for $1.40, which is a little low for a 5-wide spread, but not too bad.
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Matt's Trade Log
Monday, August 18, 2008
Matt's Trade Log - 8/18/08
Three trades today:
I entered two bearish positions on XLF, a financial ETF, which essentially means I'm shorting the financial sector. However, buying the SEP08 put was a mistake, I can see that already. I should have bought a put with more time in it. For now I'll hold on and see if it can work itself out OK over the next few days.
Hopefully, what I learned from RIG is that I was too much in love with that stock for my own good. I kept thinking that it couldn't go down, while it continued downward farther and farther. I should have cut my losses around the first part of July, when I initially received a sell signal, at about $150 mark, instead of today at $125.
- Sell 1 RIG SEP08/JAN10 145 calendar call spread
- Buy 1 XLF SEP08 23 put
- Sell 2 XLF SEP08 22/24 vertical call spread
I entered two bearish positions on XLF, a financial ETF, which essentially means I'm shorting the financial sector. However, buying the SEP08 put was a mistake, I can see that already. I should have bought a put with more time in it. For now I'll hold on and see if it can work itself out OK over the next few days.
Hopefully, what I learned from RIG is that I was too much in love with that stock for my own good. I kept thinking that it couldn't go down, while it continued downward farther and farther. I should have cut my losses around the first part of July, when I initially received a sell signal, at about $150 mark, instead of today at $125.
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Matt's Trade Log
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
Matt's Trade Log - 8/13/08
Entered into two positions for RIG today:
- Buy 2 NOV08 120 call
- Sell 1 SEP08 120/125 vertical put spread
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Matt's Trade Log
Tuesday, August 12, 2008
Matt's Trade Log - 8/12/08
Three trades today:
The trades for ISRG and FSLR were to exit positions. It seemed wise to secure gains in both in case of the possible, however unlikely, wild move in either before expiration. The ISRG spread was initially sold for $3.50 and bought back for $.09 securing a profit of $3.41. The FSLR spread was initially sold for $3.15 and bought back for $.30 securing a profit of $2.85. Not bad for either.
- Sell 4 AOB JAN10 5 call
- Buy 1 ISRG AUG08 260/270 vertical put spread
- Buy 1 FSLR AUG08 280/290 vertical call spread
The trades for ISRG and FSLR were to exit positions. It seemed wise to secure gains in both in case of the possible, however unlikely, wild move in either before expiration. The ISRG spread was initially sold for $3.50 and bought back for $.09 securing a profit of $3.41. The FSLR spread was initially sold for $3.15 and bought back for $.30 securing a profit of $2.85. Not bad for either.
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Matt's Trade Log
Monday, August 11, 2008
Matt's Trade Log - 8/11/08
Three trades today:
I exited positions on BIDU and FSLR as we are nearing expiration. My rules tell me that I should have exited those positions last week, as they were still out of the money last week and we were within ten days of expiration. In hindsight I should have done this, as I ended up not doing too well on each. In the case of BIDU, I sold the spread initially for $2.95 and bought it back today for $4.19, taking a $1.24 loss. In the case of FSLR, I sold the spread initially for $3.25 and bought it back today for $3.20 for a slight $.05 gain, which was surely wiped out by commissions. Of course, in both cases I also have vertical call spreads on the high side which may make each position an overall winner.
Good advice I read today, from Red Option - I generally shouldn't be staying in a position that I wouldn't buy into today. I don't intend to take that advice wholesale, but it is a good thing to think about. I may reevaluate some of my positions and adjust soon.
- Sell 1 GOOG SEP08 460/480 vertical put spread
- Buy 1 BIDU AUG08 300/310 vertical put spread
- Buy 1 FSLR AUG08 240/250 vertical put spread
I exited positions on BIDU and FSLR as we are nearing expiration. My rules tell me that I should have exited those positions last week, as they were still out of the money last week and we were within ten days of expiration. In hindsight I should have done this, as I ended up not doing too well on each. In the case of BIDU, I sold the spread initially for $2.95 and bought it back today for $4.19, taking a $1.24 loss. In the case of FSLR, I sold the spread initially for $3.25 and bought it back today for $3.20 for a slight $.05 gain, which was surely wiped out by commissions. Of course, in both cases I also have vertical call spreads on the high side which may make each position an overall winner.
Good advice I read today, from Red Option - I generally shouldn't be staying in a position that I wouldn't buy into today. I don't intend to take that advice wholesale, but it is a good thing to think about. I may reevaluate some of my positions and adjust soon.
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Matt's Trade Log
Friday, August 8, 2008
Matt's Trade Log - 8/8/08
Two trades today:
The second trade is to enter a new position for GME. GME seems to be bouncing off of a pretty firm resistance line at about $40. I sold this spread for $2.25. We'll watch how it does and see if we're right about the resistance line.
- Buy 2 UA AUG08 22.5/25 put spread
- Sell 2 GME SEP08 40/45 put spread
The second trade is to enter a new position for GME. GME seems to be bouncing off of a pretty firm resistance line at about $40. I sold this spread for $2.25. We'll watch how it does and see if we're right about the resistance line.
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Matt's Trade Log
Thursday, August 7, 2008
Matt's Trade Log - 8/7/08
Two trades today:
The second trade was entering a new position - selling a vertical call spread on SPY. SPY looked this morning to be trading near resistance that has been pretty solid for some time. The only concern is that trading also seems to be consolidating near resistance which could be a precursor to a push through the resistance line. We'll have to watch and see.
- Buy 1 RIG AUG08 155 CALL
- Sell 5 SPY SEP08 131/132 vertical call spread
The second trade was entering a new position - selling a vertical call spread on SPY. SPY looked this morning to be trading near resistance that has been pretty solid for some time. The only concern is that trading also seems to be consolidating near resistance which could be a precursor to a push through the resistance line. We'll have to watch and see.
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Matt's Trade Log
Wednesday, August 6, 2008
Matt's Trade Log - 8/6/08
Bought back 2 AAPL AUG08 155/160 vertical put spread. This spread was sold for $2 and bought back today for $1.37, nice. AAPL ended up going a bit higher later in the day and I could probably have bought it back for less, but with just over a week until expiration, and where yesterday AAPL was just below $160, it seemed a good idea to close this out for a profit today with the AAPL mark at around $163-$164.
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Matt's Trade Log
Tuesday, August 5, 2008
Matt's Trade Log - 8/5/08
Sold 3 JAN09 UA 20 calls with UA at about 34. 34 appears to be a resistance line (previous support) and from that point the stock trended downward somewhat. The calls were purchased on 7/18 at 10.50 and sold today at 14 for a nice profit.
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Matt's Trade Log
Monday, August 4, 2008
Matt's Trade Log - 8/4/08
Two small trades today so far:
FSLR - Short 2 SEP 250/260 vertical put spread
RIG - Short 3 SEP 125/130 vertical put spread
Both stocks appear to be trading at or near support lines. The RIG trade entails a lot of risk at this time because earnings are coming up on Wednesday. RIG earnings tend to do well so maybe the trade will play out alright. In either case, selling premium today allows us to take advantage of high volatility in RIG due to the upcoming earnings.
FSLR - Short 2 SEP 250/260 vertical put spread
RIG - Short 3 SEP 125/130 vertical put spread
Both stocks appear to be trading at or near support lines. The RIG trade entails a lot of risk at this time because earnings are coming up on Wednesday. RIG earnings tend to do well so maybe the trade will play out alright. In either case, selling premium today allows us to take advantage of high volatility in RIG due to the upcoming earnings.
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Matt's Trade Log
Friday, August 1, 2008
Matt's Positions as of August 1
Without disclosing amounts I'm going to list positions I'm in as of the start of each month. At least I'm going to try. Then I'll see how that plays out in terms of a return on a per-month basis.
AAPL:Short 2 AUG 155/160 vertical put spread
Short 3 SEP 145/150 vertical put spread
Long 2 JAN10 150 LEAP
I'm generally bullish on AAPL, although I need to do a better job of trading the near-term fluctuations.
AEMD:
Long 5000 shares
AEMD is my swing-for-the-fences play.
AOB:
Long 4 JAN10 5 LEAP
Got a buy indicator on AOB. Plan is to start selling spreads on the fluctuations.
BIDU:
Short 1 AUG 300/310 vertical put spread
Short 1 SEP 380/390 vertical call spread
FSLR:
Long 1 AUG 240/250/280/290 iron condor
ISRG:
Short 1 AUG 260/270 vertical put spread
Long 1 JAN09 250 LEAP
RIG:
Short 1 AUG 155 call
Short 2 SEP 125/130 vertical put spread
Long 1 SEP 145 call
Long 1 JAN10 145 LEAP
The long SEP 145 call is the remainder of a straddle I did at 145. RIG then moved down significantly, and I sold the 145 put for nearly the whole sum of the cost of the straddle. I'm planning to hold the 145 call through earnings. RIG tends to kill on earnings.
SLV:
Long 150 shares
UA:
Short 2 AUG 22.5/25 vertical put spread
Long JAN09 20 LEAP
I'm also in iron condors in DIA and SPY that are autotraded by Red Option. Out of respect to Red Option I won't disclose those positions.
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Matt's Monthly Update
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